The Production Gap Report has long served as a mirror held up to the world, revealing the stark gap between fossil fuel production plans and international climate goals.

This year’s findings are especially alarming. Despite record climate impacts, a winning economic case for renewables, and strong societal appetite for action, governments continue to expand fossil fuel production beyond what the climate can withstand. Scientists warn that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C may run out in just over three years at current emissions levels.

But the ground is shifting. In a historic advisory opinion, the International Court of Justice confirmed what scientists, economists, and legal, medical, and human rights experts have long warned: failing to rein in fossil fuel production and subsidies is harming billions of people and may constitute an internationally wrongful act.

The highest court in the world made clear that states’ failure to reduce fossil fuel emissions — including through production, consumption, exploration licences, or subsidies — could violate international law.

This marks a legal, ethical, and moral turning point.

As we move towards COP30, this clarity must translate into action. Countries have a legal obligation to align fossil fuel decisions with climate commitments, and to submit nationally determined contributions that are a substantial improvement over their previous submission and collectively keep us below the 1.5ºC threshold. This demands a just and deliberate transition away from all fossil fuels everywhere, but most urgently in industrialized nations.

That transition is not only possible — it is already underway. Per capita emissions have largely flattened or even slightly decreased in some regions, despite global GDP per capita growth of almost 2%. We are starting to de-link economic growth from carbon emissions. Clean energy attracted USD 2 trillion in investment last year — USD 800 billion more than fossil fuels, and a 70% increase since the Paris Agreement. In 2024, 92% of new global power capacity came from renewables, which undercut fossil fuels on price, efficiency, and emissions — even with subsidies artificially keeping fossil fuel prices down and misguided attempts to push volatile liquefied natural gas as a low-carbon solution, which it is not.

Fossil fuels are on their last legs and the industry knows it. Despite trillions in public subsidies, and aggressive deal making designed to benefit shareholders in the near term, oil and gas has underperformed every other sector over the last 15 years. The industry is clinging to outdated, polluting products and lacks the expertise or intent to lead the transition to the cheaper, cleaner, and faster electrified system that is now taking shape.

So let this report be both a warning and a guide. Renewables will inevitably crowd out fossil fuels completely, but we need deliberate action now to close the gap on time. We have the technology. We have the economics. And we have the legal clarity. What we need now is courage and solidarity to move forward at great speed with the just transition.

Christina Figueres