The Production Gap
Phasing down or phasing up?
Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises
Read the 2023 report
READ THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
This comes despite 151 national governments having pledged to achieve net-zero emissions and the latest forecasts suggesting that global coal, oil, and gas demand will peak this decade, even without new policies. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change, long predicted by scientists, are now manifesting and wreaking havoc in every corner of the planet, and fossil-fuel-derived CO2 emissions reached a record high in 2022.
This year’s report features two major updates to the production gap analysis, drawing on the new mitigation scenarios database compiled for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report and changes in government plans and projections since August 2021. The report also provides individual country profiles for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries, evaluating governments’ latest climate ambitions and their plans, policies, and strategies that support fossil fuel production or the transition away from it.
2023 Production Gap Report Launch Webinar
Key Findings from the 2023 Report
Taken together, government plans and projections would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030, and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050. This conflicts with government commitments under the Paris Agreement, and clashes with expectations that global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak within this decade even without new policies.
Major producer countries have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions and launched initiatives to reduce emissions from fossil fuel production, but none have committed to reduce coal, oil, and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
Governments should be more transparent in their plans, projections, and support for fossil fuel production and how they align with national and international climate goals.
There is a strong need for governments to adopt near- and long-term reduction targets in fossil fuel production and use to complement other climate mitigation targets and to reduce the risks of stranded assets.
Given risks and uncertainties of carbon capture and storage and carbon dioxide removal, countries should aim for a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040 and a combined reduction in oil and gas production and use by three-quarters by 2050 from 2020 levels, at a minimum. The potential failure of these measures to develop at scale calls for an even more rapid global phase-out of all fossil fuels.
An equitable transition away from fossil fuel production must recognize countries’ differentiated responsibilities and capabilities. Governments with greater transition capacity should aim for more ambitious reductions and help finance the transition processes in countries with limited capacities.